TIESIOGINIŲ UŽSIENIO INVESTICIJŲ POVEIKIO PRIDĖTINĖS VERTĖS MOKESČIO PAJAMOMS VERTINIMAS

Abstract

Summary

The article assesses the impact of inward and outward foreign direct investment on value added tax revenue in European Union countries. The empirical study is based on panel data for 27 EU member states covering the period 2003-2023 and applies least squares regression with HAC standard errors. The results show that outward FDI has a statistically significant positive direct effect on VAT revenue, while inward FDI is not significant in the contemporaneous model. Lagged models reveal that outward FDI increases VAT revenue in the first and fourth years after investment, whereas inward FDI exerts a negative effect in the first year after investment. The findings indicate that the fiscal effect of FDI depends on investment direction, export-import structure and the timing of the effect. Therefore, investment promotion policy should be evaluated not only by the volume of attracted FDI, but also by its contribution to domestic value creation and tax revenue dynamics.